June 13, 2024

U.S. Stock Futures Mixed as Jobless Claims Hit 7-Month Low, Fed Divided on Rates

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U.S. stock futures displayed a mixed outlook on Friday morning in Asia, reflecting uncertainty amid varying sentiments in the financial markets. The previous day had seen a mixed performance from the three major U.S. indexes, with the Nasdaq Composite closing with a 0.89% loss. Simultaneously, all the main Asian indexes faced a downward trend on Thursday, with Hong Kong’s Hang Seng leading the losses, experiencing a significant 1.34% drop.

Amid this backdrop, the latest jobless claims data for the United States added an interesting dimension to market analysis. Initial jobless claims for the week ending September 2 fell to 216,000, marking the lowest level seen since February. However, this figure fell short of the 234,000 forecast by experts in a Reuters poll.

Last week’s August jobs data had indicated a gradual softening in the U.S. labor market, contributing to speculation about the Federal Reserve’s potential actions regarding interest rates. Nevertheless, Thursday’s jobless report suggests that “the labor market is still tight,” as noted by Nancy Vanden Houten, the lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, in an interview with Bloomberg. She emphasized that this data could significantly influence the Federal Reserve’s decision-making regarding interest rates.

“More moderation in job growth will be needed to keep rate hikes further down the road off the table,” Vanden Houten explained, highlighting the delicate balance the Fed must strike between economic growth and inflation control.

On the other side of the spectrum, multiple Federal Reserve officials expressed their views on Thursday, indicating differing opinions within the central bank regarding interest rates. They suggested that the Federal Reserve should consider keeping interest rates unchanged at its upcoming meeting on September 20. In July, the Fed had raised the rate to a range between 5.25% and 5.50%, marking the highest level in the past 22 years.

Lorie Logan, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, articulated her stance during a speech on Thursday, stating, “I’m not yet convinced that we’ve extinguished excess inflation. But in today’s complex economic environment, returning inflation to 2 percent will require a carefully calibrated approach—not endless buckets of cold water.” Logan suggested that another pause in rate hikes would be “appropriate” when the Fed reconvenes later this month.

The CME FedWatch Tool, which gauges market expectations, currently predicts a 95% chance that the central bank will maintain the current interest rate in September, up from 93% on Thursday. Furthermore, it shows a 57.4% probability to another rate pause in November.

With the financial markets navigating a landscape of mixed economic indicators and varying opinions within the Federal Reserve, investors and analysts are closely monitoring developments and statements from central bank officials and the data in the coming weeks.

Financial Desk

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